Risks and mitigation measures
Despite its strategic importance (as part of the CRGE strategy) and Ethiopia's commitment for its success, the implementation of REDD+ across the country may face certain risks. These risks can be external (e.g finance) or internal and need to be constantly monitored and relevant mitigation measures taken. Below is a summary of anticipated risks and possible mitigation measures.
Table. A summary of risks, rating and mitigation measures associated with REDD+ implementation
|Risk Categories||Rating||Mitigation strategy|
|1. Political and governance: Legislation approval and enforcement
|Moderate as government commitment is high||Awareness creation, advocacy, promotion of championships of high political figures|
|2. Macroeconomic: Inflation induced living cost may increase labour cost or opportunity cost of free labour||Moderate||Slight labour cost increment can be compensated by the exchange rate gain
Work closely with local government and communities to mobilize consensual and free labour contribution
|3. Sector strategies and policies : Coordination among sectors||Moderate||Through Interministerial CRGE Committee and make REDD+ as a standing agenda
Similar replica at regional states level and Woreda levels will be established to ensure coordination. Resource is allocated for this.
Capacitate REDD+ institutions across all tiers of government
|4. Technical design of program: Proven experience on PFM and A/R; however there could be a challenge with the new MRV system requirement
Possible leakage within a jurisdiction
|Moderate||Strengthen Systems and Institutions on MRV as per the national MRV System
Assign sufficient resources (technical and financial at all levels)
Adopt fully landscape approach
Create a platform of jurisdictions within the landscape (e.g, a large forest areas across several districts)
Enabling environment and good forest governance in all regional states with sufficient resource support
Synergy with other projects and programmes (SLM, AGP, etc)
|5. Institutional capacity for implementation and sustainability||Moderate||Create critical mass of PFM facilitators
Strengthen upfront the GIS and RS capability at federal and regional levels for landscape planning and monitoring
Create partnership with national and international centres of excellence on various issues (resource is committed)
|6. Fiduciary||Low||Strengthen programme management and financial oversight capabilities at federal and regional level (resource committed)
CRGE Facility is accredited to GCF and AF)
|7. Environment and social safeguard||Low||Implement national safeguards instruments through strengthening institutional set up
Prepare and implement the social and environmental management plan (resource committed)
|8. Stakeholders||Low||Set clear, objective and transparent targeting strategy
Stakeholder engagement in work planning and monitoring
Create broader partnership with private sector and civil society both at landscape and federal levels (CRGE Facility has a window for private sector)
|9. Land availability: Competing needs for land and long gestation period in forest and related investment||Low||Engaging communities in transitional income generating activities including labour employment and participation in national productive safety net programme (PSNP)
Alternative livelihoods promotion
Adopt participatory land use planning and management at grassroots level
|Natural disaster (Drought impact)||Medium||Climate service informed planning and implementation
Tree planting with moisture conservation techniques in drought affected areas
Strengthen preparedness for forest fire prevention and continuous participatory monitoring
|Uncertainties in availability of external climate fund from international commitment||Moderate||* Diversification of REDD+ funding mechanisms.
* Exploring options for the establishment of domestic financing mechanism such as from public sources, public-private partnerships, etc. aiming at funding a greater share of projects with in-country capacity.
• Explore other Payment for Environmental Services (PES) opportunities such as water, bio-prospecting, etc. in addition to carbon finance initiatives.
|Delay of international level agreements on REDD+ systems||•Active participation in international negotiations by all Parties
• Promote common position among developing countries
|Design and implementation of REDD+ processes influenced by external entities||• Promote country-driven design and implementation of REDD+ processes.
*Establish close cooperation with key partners and ensure pro-active engagement
|Insufficient inter-sectoral coordination in planning and implementation of REDD+||* Ensure effective inter-sectoral coordination through the CRGE inter-ministerial committee and creating additional platforms across organizational levels for coordinated planning and implementation.|
|REDD+ revenues may not be sufficient to address drivers||• Promote other types of investments to address direct drivers of D&D|
|Overall Rating||Low to Moderate|